The Plutonomix Podcast: Proz & Conz - A Study of Wealth & Investing

TRUMP’S TARIFFS

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby reminds listeners that (as he often says) "Where you STAND depends on where you SIT."  Like Trump, we may have "dodged a bullet," but now is when the real work begins: to reduce our bloated Government and Deficit; root out and eliminate (perhaps Trillions of dollars in) fraudulent and wasteful spending; and (finally) figure out how best to help people make and keep more of their own money.  Most important (however) is to do it in a way that it restores a sense of Pride in what it means to be an "American."

TIMESTAMPS

(01:00) China's Syndrome

(02:45) Mao Zedong and the PRC

(03:45) In a Trap

(05:00) The Irony of TikTok

(05:45) Our "Allies"

(06:20) The EU's "European Commissioner for Competition"

(07:55) But, what about Canada...?

(09:08) RECIPROCITY

(10:20) So here's My Question

(11:05) "Say It Wasn't You"

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Contact Barnaby

Good!

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby reminds listeners that (as Jean Monnet said) "People only accept Change in Necessity and see Necessity only in Crisis."  Like Trump - we may have "dodged a bullet" - but now is when the real work begins: to reduce our bloated Government; root out and eliminate (perhaps Trillions of dollars in) wasteful spending; fix the Immigration situation; figure out how to help people make and keep more of their own money; and to restore a sense of Pride in what it means to be "an American."

* This Episode runs a bit longer than usual

TIMESTAMPS

(01:55) Paul Harvey's "If I were the Devil"

(03:30) "The Fountainhead"

(05:00) The "Preference Cascade" - a change in Public Opinion

(06:55) "DOGE" versus "The Deep State"

(11:00) It's Time to step on the Accelerator

(14:15) The Will of the People

(16:00) Jensen Huang's "Resilience" - the Key to Success

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Contact Barnaby

Behind the Curve

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby suggests how the Fed – after remaining “On Hold” at 5 ½% since June 2023 – may be “Behind the Curve.”  He explains the role the “Phillips Curve” and (now) the “Sahm Rule” have played in the Fed's decision-making process since the 70’s, even though things have changed since Paul Volcker was appointed Fed Chair in 1979. He ends with a reminder how we often base our decisions on False Assumptions -- and how the way we define and react to “Risk” (when seeking to calculate an Expected Rate of Return, years into the future) will make all the difference.

TIMESTAMPS

(01:35) The “Sahm Rule”

(02:35) An Exception to the Rule?

(03:43) The Rise in the Unemployment Rate: Supply & Demand

(04:45) Comparisons to the 1981-82 Recession and The Phillips Curve

(07:35) Volcker versus Draghi: Doing Whatever It Takes

(08:35) The Fed as “Lender of Last Resort”

(10:35) Our Mission -- and defining what “Risk” Truly means

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Contact Barnaby

Hot Off the Press

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby discusses recent, political developments and how they and some of the other key events on Tap might affect the Markets between now and the November election.

Enjoy! =)

TIMESTAMPS

(01:00) Out of the Running

(02:00) "Last Piece of the Puzzle"

(03:05) Could it be Michelle?

(05:30) What effect will Kamala have on the Markets?

(06:30) What's next?

(08:05) Election Day! and "The Battle of the Haves and Have Nots"

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Contact Barnaby

Is "Regionalization" Good or Bad?

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Laurie was out of town so, on his own, Barnaby discusses the shifting sands of globalization and its implications for economies and businesses worldwide. As he navigates the complexities of supply chain disruptions and the revival of domestic manufacturing, he offers listeners a nuanced perspective on the ongoing transformation to more regionalized strategies. From Boeing's cautionary tale to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's commentary on the Ukraine crisis, the episode weaves together various threads that portray a future in which things may simply have come full circle. 

 

TIMESTAMPS

(01:00) Is Globalization Dead?

(01:58) The Pendulum has Swung, driving the Need to Reassess

(03:00) The Lessons of Boeing: You're only as Strong as your Weakest Link

(05:10) Vertical Integration versus "Just in Time"

(06:50) Coming Full Circle: Reshaping "Globalization"  

(07:45) The Unintended Consequences of California's Minimum Wage Hike

(09:55) Finding the Balance

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie

Information Technology in the Media Industry

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi explore the blurred lines between technology, media and telecommunications, often referred to as "TMT." They discuss the convergence of these Sectors -- and of various Industries, in general -- and, as a result, the challenges and impact they're having on investors and consumers alike. With insights into the changing landscape of content consumption -- and the need for capital and accessibility -- Barnaby and Laurie share their perspectives on investing in the evolving world of TMT. 

 

TIMESTAMPS

(01:55) The blurring lines between Sectors and Industries

(03:45) Questions raised by this Convergence

(04:55) My, how things have changed

(06:00) First Principles and doing your Due Diligence

(06:50) Shakeups that don't always end well

(08:15) The Genie's out of the bottle for Artificial Intelligence

(09:05) The need for capital and accessibility in technology

(09:50) The Value of investing in the Media and Social Media sectors

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie

Investment Implications of "The Battle Between the HAVES & HAVE NOTS"

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi discuss the growing wealth divide and the consequences it will have on the economic and investment landscape - including something now referred to as "Money Dysmorphia." They explore the impact the pending, $72 Trillion transfer of wealth from Boomers to younger generations might have in the midst of this and the risks associated with being the beneficiary of sudden wealth. Barnaby and Laurie also touch on the potential benefit dividends can have in stock-picking strategies and the need for alternative investments when faced with market volatility. And they remind listeners of the importance of patience and preparation when navigating times of economic and political uncertainty. 

 

TIMESTAMPS

(01:22) How growing inequality may lead to "The Battle Between the HAVES & HAVE NOTS"

(03:07) The pending transfer of wealth from Boomers to younger generations

(05:00) Money Dysmorphia

(06:37) The potential comeback of the Dividend Discount Model 

(07:58) Battening down the hatches in uncertain times 

(09:03) The importance of planning ahead, with or without an advisor 

(09:53) "All that glitters is not gold" 

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie

Social Security and The Battle of the HAVES & HAVE NOTS

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi discuss the increasingly relevant topic of wealth management and the socioeconomic challenges facing different demographics. Barnaby and Laurie talk about issues related to Social Security's sustainability and the impending, economic consequences due to the disparity between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' (that is, those that have wealth and those who do not). They look at the urgent need for reform in government spending and how these changes could positively impact personal investment strategies, if done. They also discuss the implications of large wealth transfers from one generation to the next, emphasizing the importance of financial literacy and responsibility.

 

TIMESTAMPS

(02:00) Concerns about the affordability of buying a home

(02:57) Unsustainability of the Social Security system

(04:53) Potential impact of AI on productivity and GDP

(05:52) Need for political reform and shared responsibility

(07:29) Risks and challenges of transferring wealth to younger generations

(08:52) Urgent reform needed for Social Security and Medicare

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie

Unions and the Battle of the ”Haves” and ”Have Nots”

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi discuss the growing battle between the "Haves" and "Have Nots." They focus on the rise of Unions; the influence of Gen Z; and how Gen X might help. They not only explore the historical perspective of labor unions - and how their original purpose was to protect workers' rights - but also the role Management has played in exacerbating the widening, wage disparity and feelings of resentment between the two. However, they also highlight the negative impact unions can have on the 90% of the workforce who aren't members. Finally, while acknowledging the potential consequences of a society filled with anger and driven by impulsive behavior, Barnaby and Laurie provide investment strategies for navigating this changing landscape, including private credit, artificial intelligence and essential services. 

 

TIMESTAMPS

[01:35] The Battle between the "Haves" and "Have Nots"

[07:12] Wage disparities and their effect on Society

[06:08] The impact of Unions on workers and the economy, positive and negative 

[09:30] The influence of Social Media when it's people primary source for news  

[10:21] Investing strategies in a divided world 

[11:47] Planning for the future and the Power of Compounding 

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie

The Battle Between the ”Haves” and ”Have Nots”

In this week’s episode of the Plutonomix Podcast, Barnaby Levin and Laurie Kamhi remind listeners what three of the biggest risks facing the Market and the global economy are. They analyze the viewpoints of three, highly regarded investors and share their own insights on volatility; the conflict between the US and China over Taiwan; and the battle between the "Haves" and "Have Nots." Barnaby and Laurie then highlight the important role Generation X may play in shaping politics and the future of our country.

 

TIMESTAMPS

00:37 Reiterating three of the biggest risks to the Market

02:03 Conclusions regarding two of them, including the potential conflict over Taiwan

04:40 The importance of Demographics and generational shifts 

06:05 The significance of Generation X 

08:17 Neil Howe's "Fourth Turning" and the Battle of the "Haves" and "Have Nots"

10:39 "Where you Sit depends on where you Stand" 

 

RESOURCES

• What I Think I Know by Barnaby Levin
• The Illusion of Knowledge by Howard Marks
• Closing Technique of the Week: The Ben Franklin Close
• CNBC: The Fed has not made a compelling case for taming inflation by crushing demand, says Judy Shelton
• Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if a recession doesn't happen in 2023
• Contact Barnaby
• Contact Laurie